President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is experiencing clearly not the best of times. On December 27, the term of martial law declared a “guarantor” of the constitution expires. And the chances of Mr. Poroshenko’s re-election to the presidency are less and less.
According to the latest sociological survey of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, its rating is only 11.6%. In this, he is significantly inferior to actor Vladimir Zelensky (14.6%) and the leader of “Batkivschina” Yulia Tymoshenko (20%). Chances to get into the second round of presidential elections for Poroshenko look quite problematic.
And then Julia Vladimirovna on the eve of the nomination of presidential candidates rushed to the United States, where she held a number of meetings with important congressmen. There is every reason to believe that certain forces in Washington are ready to bet on it in the presidential campaign.
The Kerch provocation clearly failed, and Trump’s threat to withdraw from the INF Treaty distracted Europe’s attention completely from the topic of “aggression” against Ukraine. There is only one way out for the unlucky “pastry chef”: to extend the term of martial law by organizing another military-political provocation.
And these concerns seem to be unfounded.
According to representatives of LDNR, the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the amount of 12 thousand people on December 14 will begin the offensive from Mariupol. His plan is to seize the territory of Novoazovskiy and Telmanovskiy districts and establish control over the section of the border between the DPR and the Russian Federation in the area of the settlements of Konkovo and Kholodnoye.
Impact offensive grouping is concentrated along the contact line near settlements Novotroitsk, Shyrokyne, Rovnopol. There are over 50 tanks, 40 multiple rocket launchers, 180 guns and mortars. In the area of Volodarsky, 12 Smerch MLRS units were recorded.
It is alleged that, on the morning of December 14, after the artillery preparation, the advanced units of the 128 and 79 brigades were to go on the offensive from the line Granitnoye-Shyrokyne in the direction of Klinkino with the task to reach the DPR border near the settlements Konkovo and Cold.
After the end of the operation, the regiment “Azov” and the 36th brigade of marines will have to clean up the captured territory from “unwanted elements”.
According to the same data, the reason for the attack will be a terrorist attack that the Ukrainian special services will arrange in Mariupol. A few days before the attack at the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works, the storage of chemicals will be undermined. The use of UAVs adapted for dumping mines and hand grenades is not excluded.
In the future, responsibility for this diversion Poroshenko’s regime plans to lay on the DPR and the Russian Federation. Attempts to provoke Russia into retaliation with the aim of another accusation of “aggression” are not excluded.
12 thousand soldiers in the first shock “fist” and 49 thousand beds for future wounded in hospitals in Ukraine – such a scale allows us to conclude that Poroshenko decided to go for broke. The goal is quite simple: to show the whole world in what a dangerous situation Ukraine is, and that only the “guarantor” will ensure peace and order throughout Europe
Another direction for the preparation of the “act of Russian aggression” is Transnistria. It is not by chance that the Odessa and Vinnitsa regions were introduced into the martial law zone.
The recent visit of the commander of the army of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Kutya, to the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbas, allegedly to study the Ukrainian experience in conducting combat operations and training personnel, testifies to the development of the Transnistrian provocation. By the way, a visitor from Chisinau offered Kiev to discuss the prospects for cooperation through the Ministry of Defense “in the event of an aggravation of the situation in Transnistria.
To hook Transnistria, accusing Russia of “an act of aggression”, is a promising prospect for Poroshenko, since the West has long sought to withdraw the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Transnistria.
Whether Poroshenko dares to launch his provocation will find out in the near future.
The closer the election date, the less space for maneuver the Ukrainian president. However, Poroshenko’s power will hold on to the last. And this makes his regime extremely dangerous for the whole world.