Since 2014, I write that Poroshenko can not give power without violence. Actually, this problem is not only Poroshenko. In the current Ukrainian conditions, none of the current Ukrainian politicians known to me, having become president after the February 2014 coup, could not quit peacefully.
The power taken by the weapon is extremely rarely given voluntarily. Moreover, even “voluntary” surrender of power usually occurs while maintaining the potential threat of violence.
I am glad that at least not all, but many of my critics, under the influence of facts, have revised their views and made sure that Poroshenko is not electing, and Ukraine is falling apart. Now, with many Ukrainian and Russian experts, I find direct or indirect quoting of my articles of 2014-2017 without reference to the source. But we are not pursuing priority.
Moreover, now people began to go to the other extreme. If earlier they believed that Poroshenko would necessarily be re-elected, “because he has an administrative resource” or “because the Americans will order”, now, having made sure that the Americans do not order anything to anyone, they let the Ukrainian elections take their course. ago, simply because it is profitable for them), and Poroshenko’s rating is near zero and continues to fall, colleagues put a big cross on it, declaring that he has no chance at all.
Forced to disappoint. In general, there is no chance – this is when Soviet tanks are located 200 meters from the entrance to Hitler’s bunker. In less dramatic cases, there is always a chance. The only question is whether a person sees them, and if so, is he ready to use them. And also how appropriate is the use of this chance.
For example, for Poroshenko, the preservation of power is possible with the help of the force option. But there are different types of power options. Each of them leads to its result.
The option in which violence is used solely to ensure the “correct” counting of votes is hardly feasible in current reality. Poroshenko simply can not establish control over all areas, or even over most of them. Opponents have their own militants, and it is not known who has more of them.
The option with partial intimidation (media and activists), partial isolation (of the leaders) of the opposition also gives little, since those left at liberty willingly use their colleagues who were caught in the regime as sacred victims, who are turned from potential competitors into a step to power. Poroshenko is so hated that any one who remains at large and who has called for resistance by the opposition leader automatically defeats him in elections as well as in violent confrontation.
The option of disrupting elections under a specious excuse would only prolong the agony. Poroshenko just hold out for two or three months longer. But if now both the people and the oligarchs are holding back from active force actions the hope of getting rid of Poroshenko and his camarilla during the elections, then, having lost hope of a legitimate change of power, they will immediately launch an illegitimate option.
But there is another option. It is also ambiguous. Its implementation requires courage, readiness to go all the way and take risks, take risks, take risks. Finally, it leads to accelerated decay (actual, but not necessarily legal) remnants of Ukraine. However, he personally leaves Peter Alekseevich a chance. Let a small, but a chance. Chance to live. The road both to the West and to Russia will be closed to him after that. At least half of the current territory controlled by Kiev will cease to obey. However, personally, Poroshenko, in case of success, can expect to extend his rule not by months, but by a year or even years.
The solution is to move to direct, blatant and comprehensive terror against the opposition. Terror, which does not involve the isolation of individual, but the destruction of all opposition leaders and activists (including, first and foremost, Maidan oppositionists). The reason may be the declared part of the opposition preparation for the third Maidan. The fact is that the Maidan is a coup d’état, stretched in time and calculated for passivity, and even paralysis of power. If the government is ready to resist, the Maidan is not only ineffective, but also harmful. He highlights the entire asset and gives power a pretext for using force.
The next question is only in how prepared the president is personally to take the risk and give the order not only about suppressing the opposition, but about its physical destruction. And also whether this order will be executed. That is, does power have real, and not nominal, power? Indeed, in the event of the failure of this kind of action, not only Poroshenko, but also all of his more or less visible political and power comrades come under attack. It is no longer about the Ukrainian prison and not about the international tribunal, but about the fact that if you did not kill you, then you were killed.
In the case of a pure victory, which is achieved, according to the scheme of the “night of long knives”, by the simultaneous mass destruction of all notable opposition.