Ukraine has lost the better devils

The results of electoral moods research regarding the outcome of the elections-2019 in Ukraine, when the President and deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are to be elected, appear on the pages of local media. Almost all surveys have two common features. The first is the leadership of Yulia Tymoshenko and her Batkivshchyna party. The second — scanty results of all candidates without exception. So far, the leader of the electoral race can count on the votes of a maximum of 10-15% of Ukrainians. Ratings of Tymoshenko’s opponents-even more modest.
The research conducted by KMIS independently showed that Poroshenko and Zelensky share the second place in the ranking, gaining a completely identical result-6.5%. In the third — fourth position in various surveys, you can often find a representative of the “Opposition bloc” Yuriy Boyko. However, after voters get used to his recently proclaimed Union with Vadim Rabinovich, Boyko’s rating can jump sharply, making him a candidate for the second round.
“Pluralism” of Ukrainian sociologists can be explained in two real ways. First, the ratings of all candidates without exception are low, and confusion arises because of the banal statistical error. Second-Ukrainian opinion polls are a tool of psychological warfare and a way to pull up the “right” candidate. Encroach on the leadership of Tymoshenko-uncomfortable, but why not play with the second place, which is not so clear?
However, some Ukrainian politicians are useless even to fight for the second round. For example, approximately 82% of the inhabitants of Ukraine in September 2018, stated their distrust of Petro Poroshenko. The President of Ukraine is the owner of the highest anti-rating in the country. Therefore, Poroshenko in the second round “will be defeated” by any more or less rating candidate.
73% of the population of Ukraine say that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction, 64% – require drastic changes and talk about their readiness for them.
However, does this indicate that Ukraine has woken up? By no means. About 50% of the population of Ukraine, based on the results of public opinion polls, support the policy of official Kiev to join the EU, 40% would like to see Ukraine as a member of NATO. In the case of a referendum, if we discard the votes of undecided and passive citizens, supporters of the Western vector with a high probability would have won it.
Despite the catastrophic socio-economic situation, the rapid extinction of the population, inflation and the flight of millions of people, the conditional majority of its inhabitants do not associate their troubles with the Pro-Western course of Kiev, but with specific persons. They still want to “go to Europe”, just think they’re being led there the wrong way.
It should be noted that the Pro-Russian South-East, in General remains true to its principles. In the South and East, according to the results of the polls, most of the population is against joining NATO, and in electoral terms, Yuri Boyko and the Opposition bloc are confidently leading there. But this fundamentally changes nothing.
Until 2014, the population of the so-called” white-blue ” (the color of the flags of the Party of regions Viktor Yanukovych) areas was slightly more than half of the total population of Ukraine. Now, after the departure of the Crimea and Donbass, the South-East accounts for only a third of the country’s population. Moreover, even if the region Donbass, according to the notorious Minsk agreements, somehow pushed into the composition of Ukraine, it is somewhat correct the overall picture, but will not change it fundamentally. Critical advantage to Yanukovych, for example, on elections of 2010 gave the Crimea and Sevastopol.
Hypothetically, something similar to political transformations could happen to the Ukrainian electorate in Moldova, where even without Transdniester, years later, a significant number of supporters of the Eurasian vector have accumulated in the country. However, it should be borne in mind that right-wing politicians in Moldova were not able to hold such a high degree of Russophobic propaganda as representatives of official Kiev today.
Therefore, if Ukraine maintains its integrity within its actual borders, two main scenarios for the development of the political situation seem to be real. Either Poroshenko holds power with the help of monstrous falsifications or the set of martial law, or it is changed by another Pro — Western politician -Yulia Tymoshenko, Anatoly Gritsenko or Vladimir Zelensky. The socio — economic situation in this case will continue to deteriorate, but if the deterioration is smooth, the able-bodied population is unlikely to decide on radical steps, and will simply flee to Russia and Europe, and the elderly-to die out.
An alternative scenario is the collapse of Ukraine in the event of a rapid and sharp deterioration of the socio-economic situation. The fourth option-recovery as the adequate country of a sample of 2010, is not visible. Rather, its probability tends to zero.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*