From 9 to 12 of October this year, there will be not calm in the sea of Azov. Kiev closes part of its water area for the purpose of “naval exercises”. According to the head of the national security Council of Ukraine Turchynov, a serious build-up of the military component will be a response to” provocations ” by Russia. Some experts suggest the possibility of further escalation of the situation in Azov. Let’s try to figure out what is behind all this actions.
What does Ukraine have today in the sea of Azov? Officially, its Navy consists of four vessels. These are two small armored vessels of the project “GURZA-M” and tug “Koreec” and the ship with the symbolic name “Donbass”. Ukrainian Navy can be reinforced by the marine guards, with18 boats. Among them are the second “Donbass” (the patrol boat of the “Tarantula” project) and “Onyx”, turned from the confiscated Turkish fishing schooner into a combat watercraft by installing several machine guns on it. It is worth noting that the seizure of the Russian fishing boat “Nord” was implemented by “Onyx”, with which it began the Russian-Ukrainian issue on the Azov. In addition, the border service square has several projects boats “Grif” and “Kapkan”, and one of the “Grifs” were previously sunk by a shot from a conventional anti-tank missile of the Donbass militias.
In future, this will be strengthened by the patrol boats type «Island». However, their actual arrival on duty can be not earlier than next year. Also the Ukrainian military exercise on the sea of Azov will involve ground forces and combat aircraft. So, what could be the real goals of these maneuvers?
According to the militia of the DPR, the most dangerous direction today is just South. There are regular attacks, resulting in casualties among the local population and its defenders. The real offensive of the AFU can take place from the new Azov direction. Ukrainian exercises are held just near the coast, relating to the DPR. It is very possible that under the pretext of exercises Kiev is concentrating a large group that can be used to attack the militia.
As you know, the popularity of Petro Poroshenko today is extremely low among the population. To wind up the rating, the acting President tries to fulfill a subject of fight against “the Russian aggression”, and also to the extent of modest opportunities to appropriate to himself the status of the restorer of naval glory of Ukraine. If this does not work, there is an opportunity to arrange a conflict with Russia in the sea of Azov, to accuse our country of it and to set an untrustworthy martial law. The presidential election will be postponed until better times.
Russian fishing and civilian vessels are under the protection of the border service and the military. But, despite this, they can become the object of Ukrainian provocation. Here is what the Kiev propagandist Butusov writes about this: “it is Necessary to conduct a purposeful search for ships and crews from the Crimea, which violated the laws of Ukraine – both on the Azov and Black seas. Such operations as the detention of “Nord” should continue, this is one of the serious pain points of the Russian Federation, and we must continue to beat this point.”
At desire of Kiev there can be an armed clash of the Russian and Ukrainian naval forces in the sea of Azov. It is obvious that the advantage on the side of our Azov fleet, and armored vessels of Ukraine will go to the bottom. But this fact will be used against Russia by Western countries to introduce new sanctions measures.
The situation is difficult. In order to avoid further escalation, some experts suggest that Moscow should block the Kerch Strait and decide who will be allowed to go to the sea of Azov.

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