SYRIA BEGINS TO WIN

The striking military success was achieved in recent days by the government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the south of the country in the provinces of Dara and Kuneitra. It opens up unexpected prospects for the achievement of peace in Syria.
Recently Washington has made serious statement about the inevitable re-taliation for Damascus in case of the beginning of this operation. Israel and Jordan pulled troops to the border, Turkey spoke of solidarity with the United States. It seemed to everyone that a big regional war was looming. However, the rapid ac-tions of the SAA devalued all of potential interventionists. For 2-3 weeks when no one really understood anything, it completely defeated the 45,000-strong group of opposition operating here, the base was the “Southern Front” of the Syrian Free Army (SSA) and the alkaids from “Hayat Tahrir ash Sham “(the former” Djebhat an Nusra.
“In addition, in the depth of the zone, the” Islamic state ” groups with their 3 thousand people (” Abu al-Walid Brigade “) hid here. In order to combat the less powerful and worse equipped group of militants in East Gut the Syrian army spend more than 3 month. SAA has already released about 70% of the territory, previ-ously controlled by militants in the south and all official checkpoints on the border with Jordan. The 100,000-strong center of the province of Daraa is also completely surrounded, and its fall is a matter of the next few days. The army closed to the en-clave occupied by the IS. This success is the more important because it deprives the American criticism of Moscow about the violation of the zone of deescalation that is expected at the forthcoming meeting of the US and Russian presidents. It is permissible to fight against the IS during the summit. No one will intercede for this organization. It is possible to demonstrate the power of Damascus as the legitimate supreme authority of Syria. Apparently, now no one will be take out the IS mem-bers; they, most likely, will be demonstratively destroyed. The way to Jordan is closed to them, Amman pulled off considerable forces and did not let anyone into his territory. In case of an attempted breakthrough through Israeli minefields, there will be nothing to bury.
In general, intensive political contacts between Russia and Israel have justi-fied themselves, They sometimes are viewed with fear in Damascus. The Israeli leadership has kept its promise to Moscow not to interfere in this operation and Iranians and Lebanese Hezbollah do not participate in it. Israel has already realized that Assad won and they should adapt to the new reality. Disturbing sporadic at-tacks on the locations of the Iranians in Syria do not violate the overall situation, they are a reminder from the Israelis that the issue of Iranian presence in the coun-try is not closed to them. Without assistance of the IDF, the Pentagon is not able to influence military operations in this region.
However, the main merit in the successful conduct of an operation belongs to the Syrian tankmen and the infantrymen as well as to the Russian military nego-tiators (plus, of course, the the Russian military aviation community). The tactics of simultaneous warfare and negotiation of reconciliation or the surrender of mili-tias worked exceptionally succesful. The troops smoothly advanced and instantly stopped the fire, when the negotiators entered into the business, that also acted as flexibly as possible. Separate detachments of militants were offered a variety of op-tions for reconciliation. In some cases, they were ready to enter into agreements directly with the SAA, in others, they demanded that only peacekeepers from Rus-sia take their surrender. As a result, the front of the SSA was “in holes like Dutch cheese”. Those units of militants, who intended to continue the combat actions, suddenly found themselves in all surroundings and still had to join the general process of reconciliation. The quantity of modern Western weapons delivered by them is enormous and exceeds the largest SAA trophies from Eastern Kalamun ever in five times. According to Israeli sources, in Damascus, in the province of Quneitra along the Golan Heights, Damascus is already deploying a new offensive actions against militant positions. The complete rout is the matter of hours or days.
Because of achieving a quick victory in southern Syria, the SAA has already begun to transfer troops from there to the North to the province of Idlib. Here after the meeting between Putin and Trump, a new offensive of the government troops should begin.
It can not be ruled out that the goal of the operation in Idlib will not be the complete release from militants (70-80 thousand), but only transferring the line of separation of sides away from the vital to Damascus of Latakia and Aleppo. The international recognition of such plans is ensured by the fact that the west of Idlib around the city of Jisr al-Shugur is the main refuge of immigrants from the post Soviet space from the Islamic Movement of Turkestan. And near Aleppo in Khan-Asal, the defended supporters of the “Caucasus Emirate” hide themselves. In the south the front can be moved away from half a million Khama due to the liquida-tion of the enclave of the IS. With the remaining fighters of Syrian origin, peace talks will begin. Previously, there was information that Turkey had agreed with this option.
As a result, in the last few days a rare situation has arisen in Syria, when it is impossible to exclude the achievement of a real compromise of leading powers on the end of the war on the basis of the cessation of foreign intervention. The Syrians themselves will agree on the settlement of the situation in the country much faster.
Some experts believe that such a deal could be the main achievement of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin in Helsinki. For example, Bloomberg writes that the Russian and American administrations are well-informed in it. The parameters of such agreement Bloomberg basically reduces to the concession of the south of Syria to Assad, provided that the Iranian military units are completely withdrawn from the country, but this topic is practically an inverted page. The new agreements at the meeting of the Presidents of the United States and Russia in Hel-sinki could have a deeper character. Perhaps an agreement on the complete with-drawal of all foreign troops from Syria. Moscow acts first, announcing by the president about the begun return to the homeland of more than a thousand military men and a significant number of units of military equipment. At the same time, agreements on military bases in Khmeimim and Tartous will be vallid.
The agreement on the withdrawal of troops would allow all parties involved in the conflict to feel and declare themselves winners. This is a real win / win situa-tion for everyone. Overboard, perhaps, the Syrian opposition can be, but it does not matter.
Americans, leaving the territory, will be able to say that a complete victory on their side: on the eve of the autumn elections to Congress, it would sound for Trump very well. The United States defeated the IS and secured the withdrawal of Iranian and Russian troops from Syria. The Americans are, they say, never going to stay in Syria. Indeed, without any Arab support in Syria, Washington cann’t bind itself only to Kurdish national aspirations. It would be a completely unreasonable policy.
Remaining alone with Damascus, the Kurds will not be able to build their quasi-state. The withdrawal of the Russian and Iranian military is also satisfac-tory for Turkey, no one likes a foreign military near its borders.
In this situation the return of their “guardians of the revolution” home to Iran will also be perceived as a great success. They ensured the main thing: they helped preserve their ally Bashar Assad to run in Syria, and they also expelled their “big devil” – the Americans.
The Iranians have no reason staying there.
Perhaps, Damascus and Moscow will not proclaim the proposed agreement as their triumph, but they will know exactly who are the true winners in this war.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*