How Ukraine is going to blackmail the IMF

Here is the thing – Ukraine is waiting for the next tranche of the IMF without which the state budget and the economy will suffer. But the tranche does not come. Moreover, the IMF constantly demands that the Ukrainian authorities take any unpopular decisions, for example, that they once again raise the price of gas. Anyone in Kiev, of course, does not like it, and now the politicians thought about the way out of the situation – how to make it without doing anything unpleasant, but to receive money.
“In an interview with the Ukrainian portal Obozrevatel, the deputy from the People’s Front party, Alexander Kirsch, said that Ukraine can take advantage of the experience of Greece and nominate the IMF its lending terms.” The people’s deputy is sure that the fund should be afraid of a possible default of Ukraine, as the country serves as a barrier, separating the West from Russia. “First and foremost, Kirsch proposed to abandon the increase in gas prices for the population – one of the key requirements of the IMF.”
I understand everything and in some ways even admire the flight of fantasy of the Ukrainian deputy, but I have bad news. The fact is that Ukraine is not Greece and this is the very detail that all changes radically. The fact is that Greece is a country of the European Union and to admit a real Greek default is a complete nightmare for the leaders of the European Union. For the European Commission and the European Central Bank – this is a political issue, and this is a matter of maintaining confidence in the euro as a currency and the issue of maintaining confidence in the structures of European Union governance. To save its political reputation and save the reputation of the European currency, the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB are not really sorry to spend many billions of euros and even sometimes, I emphasize – only occasionally, to tolerate the antics and whims of Greek politicians. And then, if someone behaves very brazenly, the IMF even in Greece with a flick of his fingers changes the prime minister or any member of the cabinet, so there is simply no blackmail from Greece. And now let’s look at Ukraine – it is not a member of the European Union. The currency of Ukraine is not euro. European Commission do not worry about the economic problems of Ukrainian and it can only once again urge Ukrainian politicians to stop stealing and will be right.
I can only imagine one country that has certain economic problems and which could theoretically really blackmail the IMF and the European Central Bank. This country is Italy. It has a national debt of 2 trillion euros. A significant part of this debt belongs to European banks, a quarter of a trillion euros are debts to the ECB, and Italy has the third largest economy in the European Union. Here Rome – if it wants, can blackmail with default, and it will certanly receive money. And Kiev will not. And talk about the fact that Ukraine is whether you see an outpost of war with Russia will not help here. First, the outpost must suffer – this is normal and even beautiful in terms of PR. Secondly, the European Union and the IMF have already realized that money should be given in small doses and only under cannibalistic reforms. Thirdly, if Ukraine starts to successfully humiliate the IMF, then the next day the line of the debtors of the fund will be built, who will also want to postpone it. So let the deputies of the Rada buy themselves a machine for rolling their lips, just the next tranche, should be enough for them.
But seriously, if Kiev politicians still had brains, they would pay attention to the experience of Bulgaria, a member state of the European Union by the way. So Bulgaria now regrets first of all that several years ago it refused from South Stream and from cooperation with Russia in the sphere of nuclear power plants and now Bulgarian politicians try to correct something, but it turns out not very efficiently. Here is my forecast: in a few years the fashion will change, Ukraine will be reformatted and the main thing, here is really the most important issue on the agenda for residents and politicians of this country will not be blackmail of the IMF, but the issue of how to return Russian investments and projects. Spoiler: it is impossible. They had to think earlier!

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