TRIPLE UNION OF TURKEY AS ALTERNATIVE TO NATO

In 2012, the scandalous Mikhail Saakashvili created the format of the trilateral cooperation of Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia. Since then, ex-president of Georgia with his former homeland is connected only with his correspondence arrest, but the format invented by him exists up to this day. Within the framework of the union in 2015, the exercise “Caucasian Eagle” was held in Turkey. In 2017, the exercise was in Georgia.
According to Ankara’s official statements, Tbilisi and Baku, the tripartite union, as well as the exercises under its auspices, are aimed at ensuring peace in the region, as well as in the fight against terrorism. However, it is not a secret for anyone that the main goal of any military cooperation is neutralization of some specific threats. And this new formation is not an exception.
Today Azerbaijan has only one enemy – Armenia. But Georgia has opponents – South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in whose territory it continues to claim. And Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Armenia are allied with Russia, which is the guarantor of their security. For Turkey, which plays the role of the senior leader in the triple alliance, this alignment only plays into the hands.
Of course, joining the union, Ankara did not plan to get involved in the war with Russia. Rather, it was going to use Azerbaijan and Georgia to consolidate its positions in Transcaucasia in order to create more favorable conditions for bargaining with Russia. In addition, Turkey planned with the help of the military alliance to put Baku and Tbilisi in an even tougher dependence. However, such goals were moved by Ankara several years ago, when the union was only being formed. But since then many things have changed in the world.
Turkey managed to get involved in the Syrian conflict, in parallel with a quarrel with the United States. Erdogan repeatedly threatened Washington, promising to bomb the US military, supporting the Syrian Kurds. As a result, the Turkish-American relations entered a final impasse. Stretched like guitar strings are relations with “partners” in the NATO bloc. The reason for this is not only the conflict with the Americans, but also the purchase by Turkey of Russian S-400 systems, which in Brussels was perceived as a frank betrayal of the interests of the alliance.
In these circumstances, the triple alliance for Ankara, which lost half of its allies and fairly spoiled relations with the other half, became a kind of reserve trump in the large Turkish foreign policy game. Today, Erdogan simply needs to prove to the whole world that his country can cope without the West. Without looking back at Washington, Ankara quite successfully conducted the operation in Afrin, thus becoming one of the largest players in the Syrian conflict. And tripartite meetings and joint exercises with the tripartite union made it possible for Turkey to emphasize its importance in the Transcaucasia amid deterioration of relations with the member countries of the North Atlantic alliance.
Thus, Ankara makes it clear that it is still a large, influential regional power. Georgia and Azerbaijan in this game got the role of puppets, depicting countries that not only respect Turkey, but also are ready to fulfill many of its whims. Although, in fact, the “Caucasian Eagle” exercise and the triple alliance have a rather sham kind, demonstrating only the total inability of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan to ensure cooperation with NATO.
However, in any case, Turkey’s military and technical activity in the South Caucasus, its warming of revanchist sentiments in Georgia and Azerbaijan, provoke tension in the region, which increases the likelihood of the resumption of military conflicts, and, of course, adds new troubles to Russia.

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