American whip for Erdogan

The US warned Turkey that reinforcements from US-controlled Kurdish territories arrive to Afrin. Declaring a strategic partnership, the Pentagon does everything possible to prevent the Turkish Armed Forces from launching an attack on Manbage, where the US military are situated. This would lead to an escalation between Ankara and Washington.
In northern Syria, the military operation of Turkey “Olive Branch” continues, in which dozens of Turkish military and hundreds of Kurdish militiamen from the “People’s Self-Defense Forces” (YPG) are dying. “The apple of discord” is the ratio of the two countries to YPG. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared the Kurdish militia as terrorists, with whom he is ready to fight at any cost. Even if for the sake of it it is necessary to break the sovereignty of Syria. For Erdogan, the control of the Turkish-Syrian border is important in order to interrupt the communication channels between the YPG and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on Turkish soil. The PKK, which has influence in the eastern Turkey, threatens the territorial integrity of Turkey. Turkish media publish photos with underground channels on the border dug by YPG for communication with the PKK.
On the other hand, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis criticizes Ankara for the fact that the Olive Branch distracts from the struggle against ISIS led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in conjunction with the American coalition. Expressing his understanding of the “security concerns” of Turkey, the head of the Pentagon reports that the events in Afrin forced a certain part of the SDF forces to leave its positions in Eastern Syria and head northwest.
Recall that the Syrian democratic forces have about 50 thousand man, and the SDF is under the cover of the American coalition. Obviously, without Washington’s sanction, it’s unlikely that the Kurds would have rushed to Afrin. Consequently, by promulgating information on the movement of the SDF, Mattis sends warning signals to Ankara. CNN Turk reports that the budget of the Pentagon for 2019 provides 550 million dollars for the SDF. The Turkish General Staff sent reinforcements to Afrin and the Turkish border province of Hatay.
Against the backdrop of the Turkish-Kurdish confrontation, which, with the connection of the SDF to the Afrin battles, can lead to a large-scale war, the Americans probe the ground and seek to calm Erdogan. On February 11, in Istanbul, US National Security Adviser Herbert McMaster met with the press secretary of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalyn. Obviously, in the light of the ongoing operation of the Olive Branch, the parties discussed specific issues. You do not need to be an expert to understand that Turkey has an intention after Afrin to go to Manbij and other territories under the control of YPG, where the US military is stationed.
Back in late January, the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu demanded that the US “immediately withdraw from Manbije,” and “stop the support of the YPG”, “by deeds, and not in words”. From the meeting of McMaster and Kalyn it became known that its only result is “an emphasis on long-term strategic partnership between Turkey and the United States.” Translated into a normal language, this means that Turkey does not withdraw from NATO, but it was not possible to agree on the Kurds and Manbij. Kalyn, being a representative of Erdogan, in fact transmits the ultimatum proposal of his president Trump through his adviser. And McMaster’s alleged refusal also means the final refusal of Trump and the United States.
Commenting on the meeting of Makmaster-Kalyn, the editor-in-chief of “MK Turkey” Yashar Niyazbayev points out that official statements of officials are extremely scarce. At the same time, he notes that the agenda is built around the fact that “the relations of the two countries are on the verge of breaking.” Hence the statements of McMaster and Kalyn that, contrary to the complexities, “we are both smart peasants, met and discussed the difficulties of our relations and express our understanding of the importance of strategic partnership,” says Niyazbaev. According to the expert, despite Ankara’s outrage, the “ball” is on its side.
While the US considers it appropriate to deal with threats that lie beyond 12,000 kilometers from their borders, they do not want to understand the experiences of their partners who are talking about the threat of their national security in the neighboring yard. In general, McMaster’s arrival is a plus. Americans want to save the union. But the Turks, judging by the statements and publications do not particularly believe that the United States will be able to offer something really worthwhile. And the rumors about the 30-kilometer buffer zone are not perceived by the Turkish side as a compromise, but as a ploy to protect the interests of Syrian Kurds, “- said Niyazbaev.
Recall, in late January, Tillerson suggested creating a 30-kilometer security zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.
The writer and Orientalist Israel Shamir believes that, in the absence of serious successes, it is premature for the Turkish Armed Forces to speak about the possible “red line” that the Americans have laid out to Erdogan:
While the Turkish army does not succeed in occupying Afrin, fighting continues there, and the Kurds began to transfer their units from Manbije to the Afrin area. Until Afrin is taken, it is unlikely that they will come to Manbije. Perhaps Washington should not worry and say “stop” until the Turkish army has great and brilliant achievements. ”
As for Ankara’s future relations with Washington, Shamir calls into question the possibility of an “open and obvious” gap. The writer believes that Erdogan will make every effort to ensure that the situation is not irreparable.
Note that Turkey is still a member of NATO, and American missile defense at the base of Incirlik guarantee air defense of the Turks. After delivery of the purchased Russian S-400 Ankara will become more independent from the North Atlantic alliance.
Recall, this week will be two more important meetings: on February 15 in Ankara – between Cavusoglu and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as well as a NATO summit in Brussels, where Turkish Defense Minister Nureddin Janikli will speak with Mattis. Will they be able to come to some kind of compromise? The experience of recent meetings of the power and diplomatic departments is more likely to pessimistic. One conclusion can be drawn now. With the increase in the turnover of the “Olive Branch”, rates in US-Turkish relations are also growing. Embarking on the YPG, Turkey puts Washington before the choice of “either we, or they”.
It is no accident, on the eve of the visit of his American counterpart, Cavusoglu said that the relations reached a critical level:
«Either we establish relations, or we will break them completely».
Having lost confidence in the Americans, Ankara, according to him, requires “concrete steps,” and “not new empty promises.”

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