Turkey wants to seize Kurdish Afrin

So, the Turkish army entered the province of Idlib. They did not encounted any resistance. A column of armored vehicles entered to the North-East area. Turkish troops occupied the territory bordering the Kurdish enclave of Afrin and signed the agreement with the group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (the backbone of which is the former “Al-Nusra”) who declared themselves as the guarantors of security in the region.
The decision of Ankara is clearly consistent with Moscow, and caused the duty reaction in Damascus (by the way exactly the same as in August 2016, when the Turkish forces entered the province of Aleppo to help Moscow to break the resistance of ISIS and to prevent the connection of the two Kurdish enclaves), which of course is outraged and demands the withdrawal of Turkish troops from its territory.
But I would not really pay attention to that statement (as I said it’s mandatory in this case, and duty as one which sounded in response to the “Shield of the Euphrates”). But I would pay attention to the fact that now the Kurdish enclave in Afrin virtually surrounded from all sides by either the Turkish army, supported by Pro-Turkish forces or Syrian “opposition”. And this is very fraught.
Afrin block
Enclave of Afrin would have been crushed by Turkey, but they could not because of Moscow. The Kremlin does not need total destruction of the Kurdish threat to Turkey. On the contrary, its existence is the best way to force Ankara to carry out the coordinated with Moscow’s foreign policy in the middle East.
At the same time an independent Kurdistan under the tutelage of the United States is also not necessary for Kremlin. A new source of conflict and war can very quickly break up, so painstakingly created a new matrix of checks and balances, which already includes all of the regional players in the Middle East (Israel, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and even the territorial «dwarf», but a gas giant Qatar).
So Moscow will hinder Ankara to destroy the Kurds and at the same time try to deprive the latter of any land corridors with the US and its few remaining allies in the region.
Moreover, current actions of Turkey can lead to help Bashar al-Assad to gain complete control over the Kurdish territory.
In General, the scenario is quite satisfied with Moscow and Ankara, and even Damascus.
Therefore, if the new line of contact between the Kurds and the Turkish military will lead to fight, it wouldn’t be a surprise and we will wait for the Kurds to come to the only true and life-saving decision – to devote themselves to the legitimate government.
I don’t think that Turkey will now dare to carry out military operations against local Kurds. In fact, on the one hand it is attractive, and on the other in addition to the problems with Russia it can bring a lot of problems inside Turkey.
Have you noticed that lately almost stopped the attacks against the Turkish military from the Kurds? At the same time Turkey do not drop against Kurds the threat of imminent destruction.
But it is not coincidence. Obviously, there are some agreements that have to comply with both sides. The Kurds as much as possible reduced their operations in Turkey, and Ankara does not hold them against military operations.
All this does not interfere with the other side and to prepare for future clashes and to try to create for each other as much as possible difficulties.
Of course, such a truce could not be sustained and enforced it solely due to external forces both sides to argue do not can.
In General we expect. It seems that we may soon see the next performance. Kurds in Afrin will be put in a position where they will have no other good choice than to seek protection from Damascus and Moscow.

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