At the beginning of the summer, Syrian government forces confidently hold an initiative in almost all areas where hostilities are taking place and the areas where the militants do not maintain the de-escalation order.
So, during two days military aviation of the Russian Federation have successfully thwarted the attempts of ISIS to redeploy reserves in the direction of Palmyra. The terrorists acted creatively. As soon as it got dark three columns came out of Raqqa at radiating routes to the South direction. Russian forces has destroyed all three in a row starting with the largest. 280 militants and “Jihad-mobiles” with mortars were eliminated.
There were eight tankers, which means that in the area of Raqqa ISIS still retains the ability to conduct the extraction and processing of oil.
At the number of so-called new sectors of the front, which were formed during the expansion of the offensive of government forces after the liberation of Aleppo, SAA and the allies partly changed the tactics to deep ambush. For example, recently in the province of Deraa in the South unspecified special forces destroyed a column of fighters, and then arrived to reinforce the enemy. It was on the road from Kafr Shams in Aqraba village in the countryside. It is possible that we are talking about units of a 4th special purpose armored division, which was just recently deployed at the Syrian-Jordanian border in the province.
Now this side of the “new” front was the most active. Government forces are moving quickly through the desert along the border, leaving in the rear the city Kalamun, or rather, cutting it off from the border. Previously it was assumed that the intermediate target of the attack on the South may be the city of Al-Tanf, but so far the SAA do not tend to assault it.
On the other hand, government troops began suddenly to penetrate into the desert and to move through it, not “tied” to highways. Earlier the desert was a “zone of access”, mostly militants, and the Syrian army suffered from the fact that to cut their supply lines on a few key tracks was too easy.
At the same time there was another danger that external policy factors can stop or even make slower the successful actions of government forces and their allies up to the time of the “clarified circumstances”.
For example, American-led coalition in Iraq is not satisfied with the fact that the significant part of the Syrian-Iraqi border last week was taken under control by the allied Shiite formation. Baghdad think that these are the evil plans of Iran, which is supposedly going to organize a military corridor from its territory through Iraq to Syria and thus achieve a more favorable starting conditions for the next round of peace talks in Astana, or in Geneva.
De facto, the plans for the redeployment of the troops to Iran through two states with an unclear purpose is meaningless and impossible. But regaining control of Damascus over a large part of the state borders of Syria is possible and conceivable, and really serious.